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Chiefs @ Raiders

A lesson in weighing market analysis along-side advanced statistics to paint a complete game picture.

Between the Lines

How to Catch a Falling Knife?

General investment strategy and notes on the current state of the oil market.

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Cowboys @ Eagles

Notes and opinions on the game from a professional sports handicapper.

National Basketball Association

Advanced NBA statistics generally fall into two distinct categories: measures of possessions and measures of scoring efficiency. Using statistical algorithms, it is possible to project how these metrics will play out in a game. Following this guiding principle, Breakdown Sheets simulates a box score with field goals, turnovers, offensive rebounds and free throws.

Major League Baseball

SABRmetric simulations predict the final score of every game daily. Using historical models, the projected margin of victory is converted into a winning percentage. The win percentage is also represented as a moneyline equivalent to the price that would 'break-even' long-term. Regardless of other qualifiers used to determine a wager, always chose the side with value.

National Football League

Sample size is a constant issue in the NFL.  Each team only plays 16 games and will only see 13 different opponents by the end of the regular season. The only way to accurately compare performance from one team to another, is to use measurements that are relative to the competition that each team faced. Breakdown Sheets is the first to publish such data.

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[NFL]   Seahawks to Win Super Bowl  (14-1)

               10-1 Placed:  October 23, 2014

               18-1 Placed:  November 18, 2014

 

[NFL]   Chiefs to Win Super Bowl  (63-1)

               Placed:  October 23, 2014

 

[NBA]   Anthony Davis to Win MVP (22-1)

               Placed:  October 08, 2014

 

[NHL]   Lightning to Win Stanley Cup  (14-1)

               Placed:  October 06, 2014

Lifetime: 1212-934 (56.4%) +234.92u

Return On Investment: 10.0%

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'14-15 Overall: 76-41 (65.0%) +29.66u

'13-14 Overall: 279-206 (57.5%) +64.47u

'12-13 Overall: 293-269 (52.1%) +12.97u

'11-12 Overall: 319-261 (55.0%) +34.94u

'10-11 Overall: 245-157 (61.0%) +93.88u

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'14-15 NCAAB: 1-0 (100.0%) +1.00u

'14-15 NBA: 11-2 (84.6%) +6.50u

'14-15 NCAAF-P: 2-3 (40.0%) -0.75u

'14-15 NCAAF: 6-5 (54.5%) +0.07u

'14-15 NHL: 7-4 (63.6%) +2.48u

'14-15 NFL-P: 3-1 (75.0%) +1.45u

'14-15 NFL: 48-28 (63.2%) +17.46u

'13-14 MLB-P: 3-1 (75.0%) +1.98u

'13-14 MLB: 112-96 (53.9%) +10.43u

'13-14 NHL-P: 3-3 (50.0%) +1.38u

'13-14 NCAAB-P: 4-1 (80.0%) +3.11u

'13-14 NBA-P: 9-7 (56.3%) +4.87u

'13-14 NBA: 72-50 (59.5%) +19.48u

'13-14 NCAAF-P: 0-1 (0.0%) -2.00u

'13-14 NCAAF: 28-23 (55.1%) +5.10u

'13-14 NFL-P: 7-0 (100.0%) +7.60u

'13-14 NFL: 42-24 (63.6%) +13.68u

'12-13 MLB-P: 2-0 (100.0%) +2.45u

'12-13 MLB: 119-116 (50.7%) +2.67u

'12-13 NHL-P: 1-0 (100.0%) +1.40u

'12-13 NCAAB-P: 8-4 (66.7%) +3.75u

'12-13 NBA-P: 11-14 (47.0%) -2.15u

'12-13 NBA: 107-113 (49.0%) -15.30u

'12-13 NFL-P: 3-5 (37.5%) -4.80u

'12-13 NFL: 43-22 (66.2%) +25.45u

'11-12 MLB-P: 1-1 (50.0%) +0.35u

'11-12 MLB: 130-86 (60.2%) +38.27u

'11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u

'11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u

'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u

'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u

'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u

'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u

'11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u

'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u

'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u

'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u

'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u

'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u

'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u

'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u

'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u

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Splits by Sport:              

Overall - NCAAB: 30-11 (74.7%) +18.95u

Overall - NHL: 14-5 (73.7%) +9.50u

Overall - NFL: 142-91 (60.9%) +46.58u

Overall - MLB: 473-369 (56.2%) +97.63u

Overall - NBA: 338-310 (52.5%) +9.62u

Overall - NCAAF: 63-61 (50.8%) -2.65u

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SPLITS UPDATED END OF EACH NEW SEASON

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LAST UPDATED:  01/24/2014

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