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I am pleased to introduce the third generation of Breakdown Sheets!  The site received a complete overhaul with graphic improvements throughout, increased adaptive responsiveness, a socially integrated live discussion engine... but the biggest change of all is a new sports handicapping blog called Between the Lines.  I miss writing about sports!  It was something I had to put aside while I focused my attention on building this website.  After two tremendously successful years publishing over 6,500 breakdown sheets, going 624-508 (55%) +92X in the sports markets, and launching Breakdown Sheets Premium, I am anxious to get back to writing.  In 2015, I will post thoughts on specific games, season previews, handicapping best practices, trade secrets, you name it!  Some of this content will be shared here for free.  Premium Members get access to all of it.  If you're not a member yet, what are you waiting for?  Sign-up today and become a part of what is sure to be the biggest year for BreakdownSheets.com yet.

Between the Lines - Recent Posts

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The Right Way is the

Wong Way

Very few spreads gain value when teased.  Professional handicappers call them Wong Teasers.

Between the Lines

11/20 - Chiefs @ Raiders

A lesson in weighing market analysis along-side advanced statistics to paint a complete game picture.

PREMIUM

National Basketball Association

Advanced NBA statistics generally fall into two distinct categories: measures of possessions and measures of scoring efficiency. Using statistical algorithms, it is possible to project how these metrics will play out in a game. Following this guiding principle, Breakdown Sheets simulates a box score with field goals, turnovers, offensive rebounds and free throws.

Major League Baseball

SABRmetric simulations predict the final score of every game daily. Using historical models, the projected margin of victory is converted into a winning percentage. The win percentage is also represented as a moneyline equivalent to the price that would 'break-even' long-term. Regardless of other qualifiers used to determine a wager, always chose the side with value.

National Football League

Sample size is a constant issue in the NFL.  Each team only plays 16 games and will only see 13 different opponents by the end of the regular season. The only way to accurately compare performance from one team to another, is to use measurements that are relative to the competition that each team faced. Breakdown Sheets is the first to publish such data.

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[NFL]   Seahawks to Win Super Bowl  (14-1)

               Placed:  November 18, 2014

 

[NFL]   Chiefs to Win Super Bowl  (63-1)

               Placed:  October 23, 2014

 

[NBA]   Anthony Davis to Win MVP (22-1)

               Placed:  October 08, 2014

 

[NHL]   Lightning to Win Stanley Cup  (14-1)

               Placed:  October 06, 2014

Lifetime: 1192-927 (56.4%) +221.97u

Return On Investment: 10.0%

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'14-15 Overall: 56-34 (62.2%) +15.71u

'13-14 Overall: 279-206 (57.5%) +64.47u

'12-13 Overall: 293-269 (52.1%) +12.97u

'11-12 Overall: 319-261 (55.0%) +34.94u

'10-11 Overall: 245-157 (61.0%) +93.88u

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'14-15 NCAAB: 1-0 (100.0%) +1.00u

'14-15 NBA: 1-1 (50.0%) -0.50u

'14-15 NCAAF: 6-5 (54.5%) +0.07u

'14-15 NHL: 7-3 (70.0%) +3.63u

'14-15 NFL: 41-27 (60.3%) +11.51u

'13-14 MLB-P: 3-1 (75.0%) +1.98u

'13-14 MLB: 112-96 (53.9%) +10.43u

'13-14 NHL-P: 3-3 (50.0%) +1.38u

'13-14 NCAAB-P: 4-1 (80.0%) +3.11u

'13-14 NBA-P: 9-7 (56.3%) +4.87u

'13-14 NBA: 72-50 (59.5%) +19.48u

'13-14 NCAAF-P: 0-1 (0.0%) -2.00u

'13-14 NCAAF: 28-23 (55.1%) +5.10u

'13-14 NFL-P: 7-0 (100.0%) +7.60u

'13-14 NFL: 42-24 (63.6%) +13.68u

'12-13 MLB-P: 2-0 (100.0%) +2.45u

'12-13 MLB: 119-116 (50.7%) +2.67u

'12-13 NHL-P: 1-0 (100.0%) +1.40u

'12-13 NCAAB-P: 8-4 (66.7%) +3.75u

'12-13 NBA-P: 11-14 (47.0%) -2.15u

'12-13 NBA: 107-113 (49.0%) -15.30u

'12-13 NFL-P: 3-5 (37.5%) -4.80u

'12-13 NFL: 43-22 (66.2%) +25.45u

'11-12 MLB-P: 1-1 (50.0%) +0.35u

'11-12 MLB: 130-86 (60.2%) +38.27u

'11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u

'11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u

'11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u

'11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u

'11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u

'11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u

'11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u

'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u

'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u

'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u

'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u

'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u

'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u

'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u

'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u

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Splits by Sport:              

Overall - NCAAB: 30-11 (74.7%) +18.95u

Overall - NHL: 14-5 (73.7%) +9.50u

Overall - NFL: 142-91 (60.9%) +46.58u

Overall - MLB: 473-369 (56.2%) +97.63u

Overall - NBA: 338-310 (52.5%) +9.62u

Overall - NCAAF: 63-61 (50.8%) -2.65u

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SPLITS UPDATED END OF EACH NEW SEASON

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Last Updated:  12/14/2014

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